A New Northern Ireland? Why?

Almost every element of politics in Northern Ireland is infected with a historical virus. Partition. Unionism and Nationalism remain the driving forces in the decision-making of the majority of the people when elections are being decided. It is the accepted status quo, that people will have an opinion, be on a side, take a position, and those will be for the Union or for a United Ireland.

Why? A quick analysis tells us how this came about. It does not explain why it is the only vision for the future.

Ireland was united, under the rule of the British (mainly the English). They could not let Ireland float free while playing geopolitics in an imperial era when all the major European states were competing for a limited pool of power. France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, and following unification in 1870, Germany. The French had always been snipping at the heels of England, with threats to land in Ireland and attack on two fronts. Ireland had been used as a parcel of gifts for Kings and Queens to divvy up to favoured friends for centuries.

But as we arrive in the 20th Century we see the beginning of a change in how the world works, as liberal thinking grows and the Liberal party in the UK sees that there is real justification for Ireland to be devolved from the UK.

There were fundamental differences. Ireland was a predominantly Catholic country. The people had retained their Catholicism in the face of the English Reformation. This had been used as a battering ram for the English to control the island. Religion had been a driving force for European power blocs for centuries. By 19000 this was dissolving. Ireland wanted to be Catholic, so let it have Home Rule.

And this begat Unionism. Protestants in the North could not abide the idea of there being a Catholic government in Dublin, ruling over them. Add in that Belfast was the eighth largest economic city in the world, they foresaw that they would be paying a large amount of tax to fund the state but have little or no political power over how that revenue would be allocated.

And so we ended up with partition and the divisions and sectarianism that led to the Troubles and all the outcomes. Unionists in control if an area designed to maintain their majority. The police force with a huge majority of Protestants. Jobs for friends and family in the public sector. Housing provided for Protestants to jump waiting lists of Catholics. Meanwhile, in Eire, the Catholic hierarchy took control, with laws passed to enforce the rulings of the edicts from Rome.

Ireland was divided into two religious’ parts, one mainly Protestant and the other almost totally Catholic. The politicians in both parts were short-sighted and incompetent, feed to be so by the lack of any real political opposition. Unionists shouted loudly about the nature of the South and Nationalists about the sectarian North, but neither had any semblance of being a modern secular state.

But let’s fast forward to today, and ask the question why? Why do Unionists want to be Unionists, and why do Nationalists want to be Nationalists?

Let’s start with Unionists.

If there is a border poll, and it is in favour of a United Ireland, will Unionists face the same issues that led to the signing of the Solemn League and Covenant in 1912? Is Ireland still dominated by Catholicism? Not as far as I can see, as the people have rejected the church in two major referenda, for women’s rights and gay marriage, both vehemently opposed from the pulpit. Will Ireland be reaping the taxes from Belfast which was the economic powerhouse in 1900? No. It would be the other way around, with Northern Ireland currently a drain on the taxpayer from whichever jurisdiction that ends up in control. Ireland is now a successful EU state with a tax surplus. If a United Ireland came about, one of the main discussions would be how much it would cost the South, not how much they would take from the North. Political power would also be part of the package, as with proportional representation, Unionists would have a say in the government of Ireland.

So, we can see that the driving forces for Unionism have totally changed. The main reason now is identity. Being British.

But what about Nationalists?

For fifty years there was rampant state sectarianism in Northern Ireland. A first-past-the-post electoral system for Stormont meant that the Ulster Unionist Party was in power. Always. And being in power they made decisions that favoured their voters. Jobs, investment and infrastructure were all decided in favour of the Protestant Unionist community. The most obvious being the siting of the second university, not in the second city, but in Colerain, in Antrim, a Protestant town in a Protestant County.

Who wouldn’t have wanted a United Ireland, where you would be treated as equals? Who wouldn’t be a Nationalist when there were no advantages to being British. Even if a Catholic declared themselves to be British, the discrimination would not have been affected. Why on Earth would any Catholic want to remain in a place that clearly treated them as third-class citizens.

But as with the Unionists, are the conditions for Nationalism unchanged?

Laws that remove discrimination. A political system that has enabled Nationalists to take the position of First Minister. Investment decisions are made by Departments with Sinn Fien ministers in charge. Unionists have to negotiate. The police are being held to account. Housing and jobs are being decided on merit and not religion.

Meanwhile, the fastest growing group in the NI Census of 2021 or religion is the No Religion group which grew by 10% to 21% in 10 years from 2011. The second largest single group to Catholicism.

This leads to the question.

Are we ready for a New Northern Ireland?

Nationalists may see this as a sly way of protecting the Union, and Unionists are never in favour of anything new. But stay with me a moment.

Northern Nationalists are in power in Northern Ireland. Will they be in power in a United Ireland? Or will they be subsumed and end up fighting for visibility among 32 counties, all wanting the investment in jobs and infrastructure? All the evidence is that Ireland is centred around Dublin and Cork, with other cities like Derry, fighting to be in the game. Will the six counties end up disappearing and the focus on the north be on Antrim and Down, with the Dublin government, with a unionist minister or two, bending so far over backwards to be seen as fair that the other four counties are ignored. Again. Northern Nationalists, brought up on the idea that all the world’s problems will be solved in a UI will wake up to see that in reality not much will have changed. But will they have lost or gained political power?

Meanwhile, in the South the question could also be asked, why would you want a United Ireland, and I have asked it of many people, including a TD who had expressed his desire to see unification. His response was interesting, in that he said he had never been asked that, it was simply something that he and many took for granted. Yes, he then went on to give some reasons, but they were not anything like they would have been fifty years ago. They revolved around the current state of the country, the EU, the economy etc, all of which are now totally different from when he was a youngster being brought up on the premise that a United Ireland was how things should be. Another friend said that he couldn’t think of the why, and when he did think about the impact of a United Ireland, he began to doubt his own immediate reaction

What is a New Northern Ireland?

New Northern Ireland could be a place that benefits all the people who live here, carrying the baggage of having lived together, being different from those on the island and in the wider islands. A Northern Ireland that drives innovation and equality as its core moral stance. A Northern Ireland where people realise that accepting that others want different things and have a range of ambitions and goals. Where sport is seen as an enjoyable pastime to play and exciting to watch Where we become one of the first post-Nationalist countries in the world by wanting the people to win, not the flag. Where we are educated to know about the differences and to celebrate them, not use them to fester hatred.

New Northern Ireland could be an economic power on its own, for the prosperity of all the people. We would be wealthier from being in the UK and EU, becoming a gateway in both directions, welcoming new businesses from all over the EU and America. We could be both Irish and British and neither if you like. Freedom could release us from the past, while education could explain it to us all. Religion would be removed from schools, and left to the personal choices of the parents.

The people of Northern Ireland will not win by remaining in a NI that stays the same or moving into a United Ireland that has no real depth of understanding of how to deal with two population blocs. The emotional need for a Union or a United Ireland is different sides of the same coin. Winning and losing are wrapped up in the beliefs, being inherited from battles fought by Kings and Popes from centuries ago. We need to break free, and unite in Northern Ireland, for a future that could be better for all of us.